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Recession

Irish Property Prices Supported By Stronger Domestic Spending

Property prices rise strongly in September but annual inflation eases. Increase in prices outside Dublin becoming more pronounced.
Stronger spending power and supply shortfall underpinning price gains.

Nov 3, 2015

Increased flexibility helps to support non-EU business migration to Ireland

A new report published today (Wednesday, 22nd July 2015) by the ESRI explores the measures in place to attract immigrant investors and entrepreneurs from non-EU countries to Ireland. Business Migration to Ireland, by Egle Gusciute, Emma Quinn and Alan Barrett, finds that the Irish immigration system has become increasingly business-friendly in recent years.

Aug 25, 2015

Ireland’s finance leaders struggling to become more strategic but are focusing on the areas that matter

Continued growth in revenue, profitability and headcount, a sharp focus on technology and less restructuring are key findings in the PwC 2015 Chief Finance Officers' Survey launched today. The survey further reveals that Ireland's finance leaders are struggling to become more strategic, regulation is becoming more onerous and there is room for improvement in the quality of their management information systems.

May 12, 2015

13% Increase in Corporate Insolvencies in Q1 2015

Examinerships remain at disappointingly low levels and lag behind international peers. Motor industry sees significant decrease in corporate insolvencies. The total number of insolvencies in Ireland in the first quarter of 2015 rose by 13% compared to the previous quarter, according to statistics released today by Deloitte, and published by http://www.insolvencyjournal.ie/. Corporate insolvencies in Q1 2015 totalled 250. This represents a 17% decrease on the same period in 2014, but a 13% increase when compared to Q4 2014.

Apr 22, 2015

81% of Irish businesses plan job increases in 2015

A poll of privately owned Irish businesses by KPMG has found that 81 per cent of companies expect to see an increase in their headcount over the coming twelve months. The survey of over 200 decision makers in private and family owned business was taken at KPMG’s ‘Growth Agenda for Private Irish Business’ briefing held in Dublin today. Commenting on the results, Colin O’Brien, Head of Private Irish business at KPMG said: ‘Job creation has a hugely positive multiplier effect on the entire economy. Private and family owned businesses are the bedrock of the Irish economy employing tens of thousands and the survey reflects the positive sentiment about jobs growth.’ O’Brien adds a note of caution however: ‘While the mood is positive, challenges such as high levels of personal taxation and

Apr 22, 2015

Irish Growth Data Suggest Recovery Building Momentum

Growth data for the final quarter of 2014 and accompanying preliminary estimates for the full year paint a very encouraging picture of the Irish economy. Last year saw domestic demand increase for the first time since 2007 and exports grow at the fastest rate since 2000. So, recovery is now clearly broadening and strengthening. Irish GDP grew by 0.2% in the final three months of 2014 and by 4.8% for the year as a whole. These growth rates were restrained by an unusually large increase in imports in the final quarter, which we discuss in more detail below.

Mar 31, 2015

Irish Jobs Recovery Moving To A More Mature Phase

Jobs data for the fourth quarter of 2014 released by the CSO today show an increase in numbers at work of 9.7k on the previous quarter and 29.1k on the year. This is the ninth quarter in a row that numbers at work have increased and as such, these data suggest the turn the Irish jobs market is now well-advanced. Employment increased in nine of fourteen economic sectors over the final three months of 2014 and in only two of fourteen sectors were numbers at work lower in the final quarter than a year earlier (public admin at -0.3k and education at -0.7k). In both of those instances the declines were marginal and likely reflected the influence of public sector early retirement incentives. So, these data hint at a broadening of the recovery in employment.

Mar 3, 2015

IDA Ireland Reports 15,012 Jobs Were Created In 2014

IDA Ireland, the Irish Government agency responsible for attracting foreign direct investment, has reported the creation of 15,012 new jobs by IDA client companies during 2014. When job losses were taken into account, the net increase in employment was 7,131, one of the highest net levels of job creation in a decade.

Jan 13, 2015

Construction activity grows strongly at end of 2014

The Irish construction sector maintained its recent run of strong growth in activity at the end of 2014. New orders also continued to expand sharply, albeit at a weaker pace, while companies took on extra staff at a rapid rate. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – a seasonally adjusted index designed to track changes in total construction activity – remained well above the 50.0 no-change mark in December, posting 63.1, down slightly from 63.5 in November. This signalled a further strong monthly increase in activity, albeit the slowest in three months. The average reading for 2014 as a whole was the highest since the series began in mid-2000.

Jan 13, 2015

Recovery in Irish Construction Sector Gathered Pace in October

The recovery in the Irish construction sector gathered pace in October, with near-record rises in activity, new orders and employment all seen during the month. Companies remained optimistic that activity will continue to expand over the coming year. On the cost front, a further marked rise in input prices was registered. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – a seasonally adjusted index designed to track changes in total construction activity – rose to 64.9 in October from 61.5 in the previous month. The reading was the second-highest since the survey began in June 2000, with November 2004 the only month to have seen a faster expansion. Increased new orders and improving economic conditions had been the main factors leading activity to rise.

Nov 11, 2014

Consumer Sentiment Decreases in August

The overall KBC Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index decreased to 87.1 in August, from 89.4 in July. The 3-month moving average rose to 85.9 in August, from 83.3 in July. Commenting on the results Ciara Morley, ESRI, said, “Consumer Sentiment fell slightly in August, following an increase in July. The decrease is driven by worsening perceptions of the current economic environment and the outlook for the coming year.”

Sep 16, 2014

63% of Small Firms will Retain Employee Numbers in 2014

63% of small firms will retain employee numbers in 2014 while 7% will reduce employee figures. 3 in 10 small firms hope to increase employee numbers during the coming months. 45% expect their pay bill to increase in 2014. The Small Firms Association (SFA) have released the latest Jobs Sentiment Survey for the second half of 2014, which indicates an increase in employee numbers within small firms and reflects the recent upturn in labour market performance. However, for some firms retaining and creating employment remains a challenge.

Sep 16, 2014

Investment in SMEs Critical for Future Growth

The Small Firms Association Chairman, AJ Noonan, stated that the key to Ireland’s future success is enhancing equity finance and investment in small firms to encourage future growth. Irish small firms rely heavily on banks as a source of external finance which makes them vulnerable to changes in the banking sector. As banks comply with more regulations, lending to SMEs will remain restrictive compared to the pre-crisis period. This is a problem and therefore, a greater diversity of funding options are necessary to ensure a constant flow of finance,” said Noonan.

Aug 19, 2014

Insolvency Service of Ireland Quarter 2 2014 Statistics

I am pleased to publish the statistical report of the Insolvency Service of Ireland (ISI) covering the second quarter of 2014 (Q2). There has been a threefold increase in the number of Protective Certificates issued and the number of arrangements approved since the first quarter of 2014 (Q1). The number of new bankruptcy cases in Q2 equates to approximately 150% of the number in Q1. Given the extent of personal over-indebtedness that exists in Ireland, the ISI is of the view that the level of activity so far this year represents only a fraction of the likely level of demand for the ISI’s services in the medium term. By combining all cases before the ISI this year, the level of debt exceeds half a billion Euro.

Jul 22, 2014

Construction Activity Rises Sharply Again

The recovery in the Irish construction sector continued in May. Although rates of expansion in activity, new orders and employment all eased from the highs seen in the previous month, they remained strong and companies were again optimistic regarding growth over the coming year. A marked acceleration in the rate of input cost inflation was recorded as suppliers took advantage of improved demand for inputs to raise their charges. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – a seasonally adjusted index designed to track changes in total construction activity – posted 60.2 in May, down from the previous month’s reading of 63.5 but still pointing to a sharp increase in total construction activity. Activity has now risen in each of the past nine months, with the latest expansion linked to higher workloads and improving confidence.

Jun 10, 2014

Jobs Data Point Towards Solid Rather Than Surging Irish Economy

Pause in job gains in Q1 but trend in Irish employment remains positive; Small pick-up in full-time jobs offset by decline in part-time employment; Data suggest no dramatic change in Irish economic conditions of late; Job gains remain concentrated among over 35’s; Net emigration may have peaked as inflows increase and outflows stabilise. We think jobs data for the first quarter of 2014 are consistent with an improving Irish economy but not one that is seeing any dramatic acceleration in the pace of growth at present. Our best guess is that job growth in 2014 will be strong at close to 2% but slower than the surprisingly rapid increase seen through 2013. Today’s data also hint at exceptional demographic influences on the Irish jobs market in the shape of significant two-way migration flows and a related and unusual age related split in employment trends.

May 27, 2014

Growth in Construction Activity Quickens to Sharpest Since January 2006

The end of the first quarter of 2014 saw an acceleration in the rate of growth in Irish construction activity, while new orders increased at the fastest pace so far this year. Improving workloads led companies to up their rate of job creation and sentiment remained elevated. Meanwhile, the rate of cost inflation quickened to the fastest in three months. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – a seasonally adjusted index designed to track changes in total construction activity – rose to 60.2 in March from 56.2 in the previous month, to signal a seventh successive monthly increase in construction activity. Moreover, the rate of expansion accelerated to the sharpest since January 2006. Where activity increased, panellists mainly linked this to growth of new orders, while improvements in the housing and commercial sectors were highlighted.

Apr 22, 2014

Insolvency Service of Ireland Report

As a result of these efforts, insolvent debtors now have viable options open to them to deal with their over indebtedness. The very fact that these options exist has also encouraged creditors and insolvent debtors to reach settlements by way of informal arrangements. Where these solutions are appropriate to a debtors circumstance, the ISI welcomes this development as the ultimate goal of returning insolvent debtors to solvency is achieved.

Apr 8, 2014

Slight Drop in Consumer Sentiment Doesn't Seem to Signal Change in Mood

Consumer sentiment decreased in March to 83.1 from 85.5 in February. The 3-month moving average increased for the eleventh consecutive month to 84.4, from 83.3 in February. The Consumer Sentiment Index comprises two sub-indices; an index of consumer expectation that focuses on how consumers view prospects over the next 12 months and an index of current economic conditions, focusing on consumers’ present situation.

Apr 8, 2014

Quarterly Banking Survey

SFA Quarterly Banking Survey 2014 reveals:31% believe bank’s relationship with business has disimproved; Cost of finance increasing; T&Cs, Collateral and Delays major cause for concern.
The Chairman of the Small Firms Association, AJ Noonan, addressing the Irish Banking Federation this morning, stated that “I have never known a Business Big or Small to be Successful without a Bank supporting them!” Irish SMEs rely heavily on banks as a source of external finance which makes them vulnerable to developments in the banking sector.” 55% of respondents to the SFA’s Q1 2014 Banking Survey stated that they use commercial banks for their working capital requirements, whilst 40% rely on them for their investment capital needs.

Mar 4, 2014

Remarkably Robust Export Performance in 2013

The Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation, Mr Richard Bruton TD, today (Friday) said that the CSO goods exports figures show a remarkably robust performance by Irish exporters given everything that is happening in world markets. The CSO’s figures showed that goods exports in December 2013 were up 14% on December 2012. Comparing December 2013 with December 2012 exports of Medical and Pharmaceutical products were up by 43% to €1.53 bn, food and live animal exports rose by 15.7% to €817 million with Machinery and Transport equipment up 27% to €1.020 bn.

Feb 18, 2014

Late Payments Continue to Strangle Small Firms

The Acting Director of the Small Firms Association (SFA), Avine McNally has said that late payments in Ireland are compounding a difficult financial environment for many small firms. With the average payment in Ireland taking 62 days. "Getting paid on time is a never ending problem for most small businesses. 　Late payment causes serious cash flow problems; requires firms to extend overdraft facilities and consumes a great deal of management time. This in turn affects the ability of the business to compete, be profitable and grow."

Jan 21, 2014

Construction activity rises sharply again in December

The Irish construction sector recorded further strong growth of activity at the end of 2013 as new orders rose sharply again. Purchasing activity and employment increased as a result, while record optimism was registered. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – a seasonally adjusted index designed to track changes in total construction activity – remained well above the 50.0 no-change mark in December, posting 58.3. Although this was lower than the reading of 58.8 in November, the index still pointed to a substantial increase in construction activity in Ireland. Confidence among clients had led to improved new order levels, thereby supporting growth of activity.

Jan 21, 2014

Q3 Irish national accounts surprise to the upside as quarterly GDP growth accelerates to 1.5%

Third quarter Irish national accounts figures out today were a good deal better than generally expected. The reported 1.5% quarterly increase in real GDP was about double what the (Reuters) consensus had been anticipating as the upside risk we had flagged materialised. The quarterly pace of output growth in Q3 is the strongest since a similar outcome was recorded in the second quarter of 2011.

Jan 7, 2014

Irish CEOs Feeling More Positive

PwC’s 2013 CEO Pulse Survey, launched today, reveals that despite ongoing challenges, the business confidence sentiment level on the Irish economy is on the increase and is at its highest level since 2007. Nearly a third (31%) of CEOs are favourable about the outlook for Ireland’s economy compared to just under a quarter (22%) last year. On a similar note, nearly half (44%) of Irish CEOs are favourable about the outlook for their own businesses with many expecting revenue (56%) and profit growth (53%) this year. Capital investment is on the increase with 43% of CEOs now planning to invest compared to 33% last year. Important areas of focus for CEOs in the year ahead are the availability of key skills and staying closer to their customers. Surprisingly, fewer respondents than last year expect employment levels to grow (2013: 34%; 2012:40%). Overall, Irish CEOs are more concerned than their European counterparts on a range of economic and business threats, with much potential change still on the agenda. The survey highlights three priority areas:

Nov 26, 2013

Construction activity rises at fastest pace since January 2006

Construction activity rises at fastest pace since January 2006
The recovery in the Irish construction sector picked up pace in October. Growth of both activity and new business accelerated from September and firms raised their input buying sharply, although the rate of job creation remained marginal. Meanwhile, cost inflation quickened as material prices increased. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – a seasonally adjusted index designed to track changes in total construction activity – rose to 59.4 in October from 55.7 in September to signal a sharp monthly expansion of activity. Moreover, the rate of growth was the fastest in close to eight years.

Nov 12, 2013

Surprise Rate Cut Emphasises Dovish And Different ECB Under Draghi

In something of a surprise today, the European Central Bank cut its key refinancing rate from 0.5% to 0.25%. It also cut its marginal lending rate from 0.75% to 0.5% but the deposit rate—already at zero—was left unchanged. In addition, the ECB announced that it would continue to hold all its principal refinancing operations as fixed rate tenders until at least the middle of 2015. This extends by a year the period during which the ECB will meet funding all demands for liquidity from commercial banks at its refinancing operations (the ECB had announced in May 2013 that fixed rate tenders would operate until at least the middle of 2014). Significantly, the ECB also retained an easing bias in its forward guidance.

Nov 12, 2013

New Examinership Legislation

The Government has announced the fast tracking of new legislation to allow businesses, particularly SMEs, a less costly route to Examinership by applying through the Circuit Court as opposed to a more expensive High Court application.

Oct 24, 2013

First rise in construction activity since May 2007

The Irish construction sector returned to growth in September as activity rose for the first time in more than six years. New orders expanded at a sharp and accelerated pace, leading to growth of purchasing activity and a stabilisation of employment. Meanwhile, sentiment among construction firms regarding the 12-month outlook was one of the strongest in the history of the series. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – a seasonally adjusted index designed to track changes in total construction activity – posted 55.7 in September, rising from 49.7 in August and registering above the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time since May 2007. Panellists reported that higher new orders and signs of improvements in economic conditions had contributed to growth of activity.

Oct 24, 2013

ECB’s Verbal Easing Continues. Will It Be Enough?

As expected, the monthly policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged and didn’t hint at any substantive change in thinking that might suggest a policy shift is close at hand. ECB president Mario Draghi made it clear that an easing bias remains firmly in place and the general tone of his remarks was dovish. Yet there was nothing to suggest that the ECB is close to easing policy further, even if it wants markets to remain focussed on such a possibility.

Oct 8, 2013

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